Numbers that define the resurging Red Sox

Another home-plate celebration.

Boston sports fans coming off their Stanley Cup hangovers are beginning to notice the Red Sox again, and what they are seeing is a team defying all expectations. In fact, the Sox are on pace for one of the greatest single-season turnarounds in franchise history.

With exactly half the season (81 games) gone, the Red Sox entered last night game against the Blue Jays with a record of 48-33. They then won again, and assuming they keep the same pace through the second half, they would wind up with a mark of 96-66 -- a 27-game improvement over the dreadful 69-93 slate turned in by the last-place Boys of Bobby Valentine in 2012.

A shift of that many wins over two full seasons has never occurred in Boston since the MLB schedule expanded to 162 games in 1961. The closest were the "Impossible Dream" Red Sox, who went from a 70-92, ninth-place finish in '66 to a 92-70 mark and the seventh game of the World Series a year later. 

As with all things baseball, numbers tell a big part of the story. Here are some that help define the Red Sox resurgence (all stats through Friday):


22-7
Boston's record in games started by Clay Buchholz (9-0) and Jon Lester (8-4).

Buchholz has licked the competition when healthy.

Although Lester has struggled during much of the last month, and Buchholz has missed several starts while on the disabled list, Boston's two top starters have rebounded nicely from 2012, when the team was a combined 28-34 when they took the hill. 

Buchholz has been particularly intriguing, pitching before his neck injury better than any Red Sox ace since Pedro Martinez -- including a league-best 1.71 ERA and 81 strikeouts in 84 innings. How quick and how well he comes back will be a huge factor in Boston's ability to stay atop the AL East.


2.99
John Lackey's ERA over 13 starts

John Lackey -- finally back on track?

No misprint here. Lackey, who missed all of last season after Tommy John surgery, was the poster boy for bad performances in 2011 with a 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP that had stat geeks scouring their record books to see how he ranked among the worst starting pitchers of all time. 

Here's the funny thing; Lackey actually went 12-12 that year, and is currently just 5-5 after his best outing of this year --  a 7-inning, 12-strikeout, 0-walk gem against Colorado. He's throwing faster and smoother than he has since his glory days with the Angels, and if he keeps it up he won't stay at .500 for long.

2.33 over 92 2/3
Combined ERA and innings for Junichi Tazawa, Craig Breslow, and Koji Uehara

Uehara shuts the door.

Relief pitching was expected to be a strength for Boston, and for the most part it has been -- with Tazawa, Breslow, and Uehara providing an excellent bridge from starter to closer. Unfortunately the end of the bridge -- aka the closer -- has been very treacherous. 

Several  pitchers have failed in the role, most recently Andrew Bailey. Uehara was given the job this week, and is a perfect 3 for 3 in save situations thus far. That plus his 48 strikeouts in 33 innings and WHIP of 0.79 suggest Boston may have finally found the successor to Jonathan Papelbon.

63 and 424
Boston's stolen base and runs scored totals

Daniel Nava -- a surprising star scores again.

When introduced as the new Red Sox manager before this season, John Farrell promised that he would have a hustling ball club. That has surely been the case, as Boston leads the American League in steals -- paced by Jacoby Ellsbury's MLB-best 32 -- and tops the majors in runs scored (by a huge gap over second-place Baltimore). 

The Sox also pace the AL in  RBI (414), OBP (.350, tied with Detroit), and OPS (.796). Throw in their league-leading 179 doubles and 23 triples, and their 309 walks (second to only Oakland), and it's pretty clear these guys know how to get on first and move their way around from there.


.318, .610, 1.017
Average, slugging, and OPS figures for David Ortiz

It's been rip city for Ortiz since coming back.

Nobody knew quite what to expect from Ortiz in 2013. Big Papi missed all but one of the last 72 games last season with a right Achilles injury, and was out for all of spring training and the first 15 contest this year as well. The whispers were that age and his big physique were taking their toll.

What Ortiz has done to answer the critics is hit nearly as well as in his peak seasons of 2004-06. Visibly slimmer than he's been in ears, he has 16 homers and 57 RBI in just 63 games -- despite being intentionally walked 20 times already this year. His next double will be his 500th, and the way he is hitting now, 500 homers may not be out of the question (he has 417).



81 of 82
Number of games Dustin Pedroia has played

Another web gem for Petey.

Pedroia has always played hard, but his aggressive style has sent him to the disabled list on several occasions. This year the scrappy second baseman has been healthy all season, and is at the top of his game -- playing better than ever defensively and performing like a true No. 3 hitter with a .323 average and a 40-double, 90-RBI pace. 

Pedroia was the American League MVP in 2008, but so far is having an even better year in 2013. Fans never know what great web gem or clutch hit they are going to get from The Laser Show, but the chances are they'll get one every game.


.419 (52 for 124)
Jose Igelsias' batting average and hits/at-bat totals

Yup, he's still officially a rookie.

These might be the most shocking numbers of all to emerge from the Red Sox boxscores. Iglesias was a slick-fielding shortstop but a .266 hitter (with no power) in the minors last year, and was just above the Mendoza Line at .202 when recalled from AAA Pawtucket a month ago to fill in for an injured Stephen Drew. 

Management hoped Iglesias could improve on his 8-for-68 stint in the majors last year, and accepted that his glove would make up for an average in the sub-.250 range. Instead, he has been spectacular at the plate, amassing an 18-game hitting streak and reaching base in 29 of 33 games. He's even added a bit of power.

Will Middlebrooks has slumped badly at third, so when Drew returned a few weeks back Farrell decided to let Iglesias stay in the regular lineup by switching him over to the hot corner and sending Middlebrooks back to the minors. Jose has adjusted immediately to the new position.

Can he stay above .400 for a full season? It's very doubtful, but if he can accumulate enough at-bats in the second half, he may make it a very interesting September in the AL batting race.

New Andrew Bailey role is boon for Red Sox batters

Another run for the Sox -- thanks in part to Bailey.

The Red Sox broke out for 11 runs on a season-high 20 hits last night, including many balls slammed to the furthest regions of Fenway Park. None of it was much of a surprise to fans who arrived early for the ballgame.

Those who were in their seats for batting practice were treated to an awesome display of power as Sox batters slammed shot after shot off and over the Green Monster. Even Jacoby Ellsbury, who has hit less home runs (five) in the past two seasons combined than he did in September of 2011, was making like Mark McGwire in the '99 Home Run Derby.

The pre-game crowd likely paid little attention to the mustached and bespectacled pitcher who was serving up the B.P. meatballs to Jacoby and Co. One perceptive media member, however, recognized the hurler's delivery and realized the Tom Selleck wannabee was actually Andrew Bailey in disguise. 

Like Bobby V., Bailey couldn't stay hidden long.

Bailey has temporarily lost his role of Red Sox closer, but team management has apparently found a new job for the former All-Star that they believe could most help the team: batting practice pitcher.

The right-hander disappeared before he could be questioned, but when Boston manager John Farrell was asked about the incident after the game, he admitted that the mystery guy on the mound was indeed the same guy who had a 15.75 ERA in his last five appearances -- with just two saves in five chances and a pair of ninth-inning homers.

"Andrew has been getting the ball over plate too often, and we just can't afford to have that happening in the ninth inning of close ballgames,"explained Farrell. "Before the game gets started, well, that's another story. If he can get them over the plate with consistency during batting practice, it gives us a chance to get some real good swings in."

No more Bailey blown saves for a while.

Farrell said Bailey might still be called upon to pitch in games, but with Koji Uehara currently in the closer's role and the rest of the relief corps fairly stabilized, Bailey's best chance at regular action might be well before the National Anthem.

According to team historian Dick Bresciani, this is not the first time the Red Sox have transitioned an active pitcher into the BP role. Calvin "Deer in the Headlights" Schiraldi spent a summer grooving balls for Dwight Evans and Wade Boggs in 1987, and John "Way Back" Wasdin lived up to his nickname on a daily basis in 2000. Carl Everett credited Wasdin for the best first half of his career that summer, but he slumped after Wasdin's late July trade to Colorado.

This one is going WAYYYYYY back.

Although Farrell says it's unclear how long Bailey will remain a pre-game regular, guys like Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Daniel Nava, and Jose Iglesias (three hits apiece tonight) hope it will be a while.

Fenway Fiction

Why Buchholz may be the new Pedro -- which isn't always a good thing

Not what Red Sox fans like to see.

There is a certain buzz around Fenway Park these days when Clay Buchholz takes the mound, the kind of excitement that comes with a 9-0 start and a 1.65 ERA -- the lowest by a Red Sox pitcher through 12 starts since uber-ace Pedro Martinez had a 1.44 ERA after a dozen appearances in 2001.

He is not in Pedro's class yet, and may never be, but Buchholz has erased any doubt he is the No. 1 man in the rotation as Jon Lester has slipped in recent weeks. Buchholz's perfect mark and MLB-best ERA, however, are not the only things that may remind fans of when Martinez toed the rubber for Boston.

The other? Uncertainty over when he'll next do so.

Pedro was the Ming vase of the American League from 1998-2004, brilliant yet delicate and prone to cracking. After a brilliant three months in '01, he suffered a rotator cuff injury in his 14th start on June 26 that put him on the disabled list for all but 13 innings over the rest of the season.

Brilliant but delicate -- Pedro cranks it up.

Martinez was still overpowering in the years to come, but pitched 200 innings just twice in his final eight seasons (and never more than 217) while dealing with assorted minor injuries. Managers with the Red Sox and later the Mets were extremely cautious, knowing that 25 to 30 starts with Pedro were better than 33 to 37 with anybody else.

Nearly a decade after the future Hall of Famer's Boston swan song with the '04 World Series champs, Martinez remains the standard by which all Red Sox pitchers are judged. Buchholz appears to be the real deal, but he's also dealing with a trapezius (upper back/neck) injury that has forced him to miss his last two starts. 

It's unclear when he'll pitch again, since the bullpen session he was scheduled to throw Saturday was canceled due to lingering pain -- causing manager John Farrell to scratch him from his next start Tuesday against the Rays.

Finishing touch: Buchholz closing out his no-hitter.

Unfortunately, this is not an isolated incident. After throwing a no-hitter in just his second major-league appearance in 2007, Buchholz struggled for two years before breaking out with a 17-7 record and 2.33 ERA in 2010. 

Experts penciled the slim right-hander in for 18-20 wins in '11, but a stress fracture in his lumbar spine ended his season in June. Last year, even though he was injury-free, he pitched just 189 innings and had a 4.56 ERA while struggling to regain his form.

Now he's pitching better than ever, having allowed just two home runs and 29 walks in 84.1 innings while striking out 81. Those numbers, along with his ERA and won-loss record, are certainly Pedro-esque, but will Buchholz be able to get past the injuries that have kept him from achieving the dependability required of a true ace?

Can Buchholz lick his latest injury?

Right now, the jury is still out. If the Red Sox want to be playing deep into October, they need Buchholz not just to pitch well, but to pitch often.

Dewey to Youk: Best later-round Red Sox draft picks

Much was made of the fact that the Red Sox had a Top 10 draft pick for the first time in 20 years this week -- finishing last will do that for you -- but it's not always the top selections that pan out. For every home run pick like Jim Rice, Nomar Garciaparra, and Dustin Pedroia in the first round, the Sox have also struck out with the likes of Jason Place (2006) and Steve Ellsworth (1981).

Even more intriguing, however, are those later-rounders who almost slip through the cracks and wind up playing far above expectations. As Red Sox fans speculate the future of this year's top pick, lefty pitcher Trey Ball, take a look at some Boston post-fourth rounders who later starred for the team:

DWIGHT EVANS - 5th Round, 1969

The 17-year-old high schooler from the San Fernando Valley League (fur sure!) was in the majors by September 1972 and wound up notching 379 homers and eight Gold Gloves with the Sox. This was a pretty good draft for Boston, whose first selection Rick Miller was an outfield mate of Evans for several years at Fenway and later won a Gold Glove himself with the Angels.

WADE BOGGS - 7th Round, 1976

It took the Chicken Man six years and an injury to Carney Lansford to get to Fenway, but he was a star from the start with a .349 average as a rookie and five batting titles with Boston. This was a gold mine draft for the Sox, with eight future big leaguers including Bruce Hurst, John Tudor, and Glenn Hoffman.


DENNIS BOYD - 16th Round, 1980

The Red Sox don't make the 1986 World Series without Oil Can, who went 16-10 that summer and was Boston's winningest pitcher in the three-year span from 1984-86. The top Sox pick in '80, pitcher Ray Krawczyk, never won a game in the majors.


SHEA HILLENBRAND - 10th Round, 1996

He may have been a head case and (in the end) an underachiever, but Hillenbrand was an All-Star third baseman for Boston in 2002 -- when he tallied 43 doubles and 83 RBIs. Boston's top pick in '96 was pitcher Andy Yount, who threw 95 MPH-plus in high school but was a minor league washout.


KEVIN YOUKILIS - 8th round, 2001

Drafted out of the University of Cincinnati, the Greek God of Walks was a rookie contributor on the 2004 World Series winners and a Gold Glove third baseman for the '07 champs. A three-time All-Star with the Red Sox, he's far outshone '01 top pick Kelly Shoppach, a .224-hitting catcher with Boston and four other teams.

WILL MIDDLEBROOKS - 5th round, 2007

Boston fans and management are hoping Middlebrooks' fantastic rookie debut in 2012 -- when he hit 15 homers in 75 games before being sidelined by a wrist injury -- is indicative of a great future. When he went on the DL this year he was batting just .201, but he's still only 24.  Boston's top '07 pick, left-handed pitcher Nick Hagadone, currently struggling as a reliever with Cleveland.

WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN

Some late-round picks by the Red Sox who made it big with other teams:

Amos Otis - 5th round, 1965
Ben Oglivie - 11th round, 1968
Jack McDowell - 20th round, 1984 (didn't sign)
Brady Anderson - 10th round, 1985
Carl Pavano - 13th round, 1994
David Eckstein - 19th round, 1997
Mark Teixeira - 9th round, 1998 (didn't sign)
Freddy Sanchez - 11th round, 2000

The One Thing I Don't Miss About Terry Francona

Tito is at it again.

As expected, Terry Francona received a tremendous welcome back from Red Sox fans and players at Fenway Park this past weekend. I was among those cheering, but Tito's return also reminded me of the one thing that drove me crazy about the best manager in team history: 

Here's a hint -- it rhymes with brew.

Francona's bulging cheeks made it clear that his love of chewing has not subsided with his move from Boston to Cleveland. It seemed like nearly every time the Fenway cameras panned to the visitor's dugout during the Red Sox-Indians series, Tito was either leaning over to spit or reaching behind the far left wall to grab something else to stuff in his mouth. On those rare occasions when he was doing neither, his face resembled a cross between Popeye and Don Zimmer.

Zimmer's cheeks could rival anyone's.

I'm not 100 percent sure what it is Francona is chewing -- smokeless tobacco, bubble gum, or a combination of both (I know that sounds gross, but a lot of guys do it). I recall that years ago while with the Red Sox, Tito expressed an interest in quitting tobacco and even made a bet that he'd give a big check to the Jimmy Fund if he couldn't kick the habit. I'm not sure how that came out but he's clearly still putting something in there at a rapid rate.

Why does this disturb me so much? First off, it's just plain gross. I remember when my brother chewed and carried a Dixie cup everywhere to spit in. He's since quit the habit, thank goodness, but I've never forgotten the vile smell or the look of his half-filled cups. Seeing Francona in action reminds me of those days.

Tito in action for Boston.

Then of course there is the bad impression it makes. Since it's unclear at quick glance whether Francona is chewing tobacco, there are countless kids across New England (and now Ohio) who have undoubtedly emulated their favorite manager by getting in the dipping habit with the real thing. My 8-year-old daughter prefers a generous wad of Big League Chew bubble gum when she's playing softball, but teenagers (especially boys) will likely opt for the "real stuff" found in smoke shops and many pharmacies.

If you don't know about the health concerns of chewing tobacco, let's put it this way -- if you are a fan of your jaw, tongue, and cheeks, you shouldn't be dipping. Bill Tuttle, a big league outfielder who usually looked like he had baseballs in his cheeks, died at age 69 after oral cancer had claimed a big chunk of his face. He devoted his last years to preaching on the ills of tobacco, and hopefully lots of kids got the message. 

Here's Tuttle before....

and after his career....

Recently, USA Today baseball writer Paul White mentioned in a column that Francona is once again trying to quit. To check his progress, I situated myself directly across the diamond from the visitor's dugout at Fenway last Saturday and looked in at Francona through a pair of trusty WWII-era binoculars. My reconnaissance mission did not determine the source of Tito's bulging cheeks, just that he is spitting and stuffing as much as ever.

On the lookout for gum or dip.

All of us who loved the guy for the joy he brought Boston (and now Cleveland) can only hope that it's Big League Chew he's reaching for more than the bad stuff.

Sox in Six: Most Electric Red Sox Pitchers of Last 50 Years

Buchholz's record is still unblemished.

In leading the Red Sox to victory in Chicago during the final game of a nine-game road trip last night, Clay Buchholz ran his early-season record to 7-0. 

Buchholz's white-hot start, which includes a 1.73 ERA and 73 strikeouts in 72.2 innings, is one of the best in franchise history. It also has Red Sox fans wondering -- is the wiry right-hander ready to join the list of elite pitchers in Red Sox annals?

These are the guys who didn't just win big games, but had the ballpark buzzing before they even walked in from the bullpen. 

Today's Sox in Six focuses on the most electric Red Sox pitchers of the past half-century:


Dick Radatz

Mickey Mantle gave Radatz his nickname -- "the Monster" -- after striking out for what seemed like the 100th straight time against the big right-hander. 

Actually, Mickey whiffed 44 times in 63 at-bats against Radatz, but you get the idea. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds (and likely larger), Radatz was a menacing figure on the mound, and he had the stuff to back up the big shadow he cast.

As a reliever with the Red Sox in the 1960s, Radatz was so overpowering that he drew standing ovations each time he came in from the Fenway bullpen. No matter what the score, fans would wait around to see if the Monster would make an appearance.

The Sox of this era were awful, but Radatz was still one of the best pitchers in baseball -- going 40-21 with 78 saves from 1962-64 with a 2.17 ERA and 487 strikeouts in 414 innings. In the era before closers and set-up men, he'd often pitch two or three innings for several nights in a row. 

The Monster flamed out before Yaz and the Impossible Dream team of 1967 revived Boston baseball. It's hard to imagine how good this guy could have been on a decent team.

Luis Tiant

Tiant was the David Ortiz of the 1970s Red Sox, a big-hearted jokster who was a clubhouse leader and a cold-hearted killer in the clutch. 

The Cuban righty with the crazy wind-up and a seemingly endless array of arm angles and deliveries won 20 games three times between 1973-76, and nearly pitched Boston to a title in the '75 World Series with two complete-game victories (plus seven more gritty innings) against the mighty Cincinnati Reds.

Posessing a Fu Manchu mustache and a visible passion for the game, "El Tiante" was a Fenway favorite who elicited loud cries of "LOOOOOOUIE!" from his adoring fans. Despite having lost his best fastball by his mid-30s he could still out-think the opposition and occasionally blow batters away.

Down the stretch of a season there was no one better -- as evidenced by Tiant's stellar .675 winning percentage in September/October. When Boston ownership let Louie walk after the '78 season, team captain Carl Yastrzemski lamented the loss of "our heart and soul."


Roger Clemens

Long before anybody was talking about steroids, Clemens was the heir to fellow Texan Nolan Ryan as the best power pitcher in the game.

"The Rocket" emerged from injuries early in his career to have one of the best seasons any pitcher could hope for in 1986 -- going 24-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 238 strikeouts (including a 9-inning record of 20 on April 29). Like Tiant, he nearly led Boston to a title before the nightmare at Shea Stadium that October. 

The "K" cards flew often at Fenway during Clemens' heyday, as he averaged 239 strikeouts between 1986-92 while going 136-63 with a 2.66 ERA and notching three Cy Young Awards (as well as the '86 MVP). When the Red Sox struggled with an anemic offense in the early '90s, the Rocket often carried the club on his broad shoulders but also lost plenty of low-scoring games.

His Boston years ended ugly, with a drop-off in performance and conditioning that GM Dan Duquette saw as the beginning of his end, and the doping revelations of recent years have perhaps forever tainted Clemens' image. At his youthful peak, however, there was no one better.


Pedro Martinez

Starts by Martinez at Fenway were more than just ballgames -- they were happenings. 

Saluted with thunderous ovations and the waving of countless Dominican flags, Pedro was slight in stature at 5-foot-11, 170 pounds but a giant on the mound. Like perhaps no pitcher since Sandy Koufax, he dominated hitters to the point where it almost didn't seem fair. 

Whether in a pennant race (17 strikeouts at Yankee Stadium in September 1999) or an exhibition (whiffs of five elite NL batters in the '99 All-Star Game), "The Dominican Dandy" delivered a great show. Just as Babe Ruth once out-homered entire teams, Pedro made a mockery of the ERA race by dwarfing all other pitchers in runs allowed (including a 1.74 to 3.70 edge over runner-up Roger Clemens in 2000).

Martinez's '99 season (23-4 with a 2.07 ERA and 313 strikeouts in 213 innings) was his coronation as the game's greatest hurler, and although injuries and careful managers kept his innings down in later years, he was still an elite pitcher on many occasions -- and a key part of the team that finally ended Boston's 86-year World Series title drought in 2004. 


Curt Schilling

Whether or not they liked his right-wing politics, fans loved the right arm of the big-boned pitcher who talked big and then backed it up. 

Brought in to put Boston over the top and finally take down the Yankees, Schilling delivered -- eclipsing Martinez as the staff ace and going 21-6 for the 2004 champs. He was a power pitcher in the Clemens mold, and he shined best on the brightest stage -- going 6-1 in the postseason and helping the Red Sox to titles in '04 and 2007.  

His ALCS and World Series work in 2004 was the stuff of legend, complete with a sutured ankle and bloody socks that earned him hero status throughout New England. Schilling's problems in the business world have largely tainted that image, as have his political slants. But no teammates are giving back their rings.


Jonathan Papelbon

It's been two years since the Red Sox let Papelbon leave as a free agent, and they are still looking to replace their most dominant reliever since Dick Radatz.

When Papelbon entered most games in the ninth inning to the upbeat sounds of The Dropkick Murphys' classic "Shipping Off to Boston," Fenway fans knew in most cases they'd be hearing the victory anthem of "Dirty Water" a few minutes later. The big right-hander with the steely stare had a blazing fastball and tremendous control -- walking just 15 and striking out 88 while recording 37 regular-season saves and the final out of the 2007 World Series.

Second only to Mariano Rivera as an elite American League closer from 2006-09, Papelbon registered an outstanding aggregate 1.74 ERA and at least 35 saves each year. A big ERA jump to 3.90 in 2010 led ownership to assume his best days were behind him, and Papelbon has been proving them wrong ever since.




    

Sox in Six: Why Red Sox Fans Should Ignore David Ortiz Steroid Rumors

Innocent until proven guilty.

"It's like when you're winning really big at Monopoly, and people think you're stealing from the bank."

This was my 8-year-old daughter's response when I asked her for an example of when someone doing well might be unfairly accused of cheating. I posed the question after reading Dan Shaughnessy's column in Wednesday's Boston Globe, in which he detailed his locker room steroids chat with David Ortiz the previous afternoon. 

Since Ortiz emerged from seven months on the shelf nursing a bad heel to hit .426 in his first 14 games back in the Red Sox lineup, Shaughnessy posed, it was only natural that people suspect steroids were fueling the comeback. Ortiz denied any doping, and while I give Shaughnessy credit for questioning the slugger to his face, I felt the exchange deserved a paragraph low in Tuesday's game notes rather than a bold, top-of-the-fold headline.

Why should Red Sox fans ignore the steroids talk surrounding Ortiz's big start? That's the subject of today's Sox in Six.


He's following the rules -- and passing the tests

Unlike his old buddy, Ortiz passes each test.

As Ortiz explained to Shaughnessy Tuesday, he's subject to the same random testing as all big leaguers:

"They test me all the time," Ortiz said. "They make you pee and the test your blood, too. This year I would say I've probably been tested five times, peeing. Blood, just once. That was in spring training. They don't warn you. They just show up."

This information is probably easy enough to verify. It has been speculated that conspiring ballplayers, trainers, and chemists are constantly exploring ways to beat the system, but the fact remains that Ortiz has been repeatedly tested, and found to be clean.

Being on the 2003 list doesn't make him guilty

Young Papi was careless.

After Ortiz initially avoided the steroid scandal that tarnished the reputation of other superstars including Alex Rodriguez, Barry Bonds, and Sammy Sosa, he faced his first doping accusations in May 2009 when it was revealed his name was on the sealed list of roughly 100 MLB players to test positive for performance-enhancing drugs in 2003. 

The list was leaked by anonymous lawyers with knowledge of the results, who did not reveal which drugs had been detected in Ortiz's case. Within days of the news breaking Ortiz gave a heartfelt press conference in which he denied PED use but said he "definitely was a little bit careless back in those days when I was buying legal supplements and legal vitamins over the counter."

At the time Ortiz's name surfaced on the list, the New York Daily News reported that Ortiz could have been "one of eight players who were believed to have tested positive for a spiked dietary supplement in 2003, rather than for hard-core injectable steroids. The supplement 19-norandrostenedione was legal in 2003 and contained the steroid nandrolone, a hard-core performance-enhancing drug used to build muscle."

In other words, there is a good chance Ortiz did nothing wrong in '03, the year he joined the Red  Sox and had his first breakout season with 31 home runs.

His stats don't match a "typical" steroid user

Ortiz hits with more consistency today.

Ortiz has been a 30-homer, 100-RBI guy for a decade, with only two years in which his totals went up considerably (2005-06, when he had 47 and 54 homers). Most accused steroid users like A-Rod have seen their offensive output plummet in recent years with the introduction of random testing, but Papi has actually enjoyed a resurgence the past two seasons.

This was a big part of Shaughnessy's premise -- that "athletes do not get better as they mature into their late 30s." But if you look closely at Ortiz's numbers, they are not the result of his suddenly becoming stronger -- but rather his getting smarter.

Ortiz has improved as an all-around hitter 

Lefty or righty, pitchers feel Papi's power.

For most of his career, Ortiz had a tough time against left-handed pitchers. In 2004, for instance, he had 31 home runs and a .326 average against righties but only 10 homers and a .250 mark against lefties. By 2010 the disparity was worse than ever: 30 homers and a .297 average vs. righties, just TWO homers and .222 vs. lefties. 

Another hole in his game was Ortiz's inability to consistently hit the ball to left field. Like they had once done against Ted Williams, opposing teams exploited this by employing a "Papi Shift" in which the shortstop moved to the right of second base during Ortiz's at-bats and other infielders and outfielders also drifted in that direction. 

For years Ortiz struggled against the shift, but now he is rendering it useless. For the past one-and-a-half seasons, he has batted nearly .320 against lefties and is hitting the ball to left far more consistently. His pure power may not be at 54-homer strength anymore, but he's finding the holes and harming more pitchers.

He's lost weight, not gained bulk

A healthy choice for his career.

Compare a 1990 Barry Bonds baseball card with a 2002 Bonds card, and you have the poster boy for steroids. Whereas the young Bonds was trim and taut, the older version was bulky to a cartoonish degree.

Now take a look at Ortiz. In the past season, he's actually shed considerable pounds off his husky frame, which has helped him keep his bat speed quick and is not consistent with PED use. Unlike past big-boned Sox sluggers like George Scott and Mo Vaughn who fizzled quickly in their mid-30s, Ortiz realizes that stepping away from the table may be his ticket to a longer career and maybe even the Hall of Fame.

He's earned a large degree of trust

Like Brady, Ortiz commands respect.

During the past 10 years, only Tom Brady has achieved the cult status of Ortiz among Boston athletes. Big Papi has been a tower of strength on the field, a leader in the clubhouse, and a champion of the Jimmy Fund and numerous other charities. Like Brady, he's been his best in the clutch and a driving force on championship teams.

Red Sox Nation may never truly know if Papi ever cheated, or, if he did, whether he did so knowingly. In the meantime, it is no more fair to suspect him of juicing when he is hitting .426 than it is to claim he has come clean if he goes 1-for-14 -- as he has since his talk with Shaughnessy.

What is clear is this: if the Red Sox hope to have any chance of making the playoffs, they need a healthy and happy Ortiz in the middle of their batting order.