Eight Things to Watch for at Red Sox Spring Training

John Farrell takes charge -- how will it go?

Now that the obligatory Q&A sessions about what went wrong in 2012 and what everyone thinks about Terry Francona's book are (hopefully) over, it's time for Red Sox players and fans to start focusing on the season ahead.

The full squad was due at Jet Blue Park at Fenway South yesterday, but many position players showed up in Fort Myers early -- a good sign that the club is hungry to rise from its unfamiliar spot in the American League East basement. While the club's won-loss mark in spring training games is not necessarily a barometer of what is to come, the stage for the season can be largely set during the next seven weeks. 

Here are eight intriguing story lines to watch for leading up to Opening Day at Yankee Stadium on April 1:

Lester hopes his future is bright.

1. Can Jon Lester become a true ace of the pitching staff?
Lester said all the right things in his first interview the other day, including how he is fiercely committed to prove his 9-14 record and 4.82 ERA last season were a fluke. Now, with former 20-game winner Josh Beckett out of the picture, it will be intriguing to see if Lester can raise his game back to its pre-2012 level -- and beyond. Even at his best, the big left-hander has never won 20 or pitched more than 210 innings; nearing or eclipsing those marks would establish him as an ace in the Schilling-Beckett tradition.

2. Can Jose Iglesias hit big-league pitching?
The signing of veteran Stephen Drew over the winter was an indication the Red Sox don't believe slick-fielding Iglesias is ready to play every day at shortstop. And with the highly-touted Xander Bogearts rising through the system at the same position, Iglesias may never get the chance. Still, he can prove his worth to Boston and other clubs as a trade chip by improving on his anemic .135 MLB average. There is certainly precedent for Gold Glove-level shortstops to gain their offensive touch over time; after compiling a .231 average over his first four full MLB seasons, Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith eventually became a consistent .270-.280 hitter.

Will Middlebrooks -- the Eye of the Tiger.

3. Can Will Middlebrooks prove his freshman season was not a fluke?
Before he went down with a broken wrist last August, Middlebrooks was baseball's hottest-hitting rookie not named Mike Trout. The third baseman has apparently healed completely, but the sophomore jinx is always a concern. If Middlebrooks can improve his plate discipline, and learn to lay off the steady diet of off-speed stuff he was starting to get in the weeks prior to his injury, he could be manning the hot corner in Boston for the next decade.

4. Can Tim Wakefield help unveil the next Tim Wakefield?
The Red Sox have two knuckleball pitchers in camp -- Steven Wright and Charlie Haeger. Wright, a career minor leaguer, won his only start at Double A Portland after being obtained from Cleveland last summer (for whom he went 9-6 at Double A). Haeger, who has appeared in 34 big-league game with middling success over parts of five seasons, was 4-1 with Portland with an impressive 3.21 ERA. With Wakefield in camp to tutor both these fingernail flippers, it will be fun to see if either of them can make the grade (and the team). 

John Lackey -- redemption on his mind.

5. Can John Lackey finally pay off?
After a year on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery, Lackey is noticeably slimmer and anxious to prove he's a far better pitcher than the one who in 2011 had one of the worst years ever by an MLB starter with at least 150 innings pitched (including a 6.41 ERA and 1.619 WHIP). He was rock-solid before coming to Boston, and management obviously feels he can be so again -- penciling him as the No. 3 starter behind Lester and Clay Buchholz.  

6. Are Big Papi's big days behind him?
Until an Achilles' tendon injury stopped him last July, David Ortiz was having his best statistical season since his salad days of 2004-2007 -- on pace for close t0 40 homers and a 1.000 OPS. He has come into camp limping, and rumors persist that he may not be ready for the start of the regular season. At age 37, the last link to the '04 champs will have to prove once more that he is still a middle-of-the-order hitter worthy of carrying a club. 

Ellsbury is ready to run -- but will he hit for power?

7. Can Jacoby Ellsbury be a 30-30 guy again?

In 2011 Ellsbury had one of the great all-around seasons in Red Sox history -- 32 home runs, 39 steals, a .321 average, 212 hits, 119 runs scored, and a Gold Glove in center field -- but last year a shoulder injury in the home opener forced him to miss 79 games. Although he hit for a decent .278 average upon his return, he had just 4 homers in 67 post-injury contests. Playing on his sixth one-year contract, and with trade rumors swirling around him, Ellsbury will be looking to regain his power stroke this spring.

8. How will John Farrell establish himself as the new manager?
Farrell is in a challenging position. Many Sox players know and like him from his years as Terry Francona's pitching coach, but that was Tito's team -- and now Farrell needs to establish himself as the boss of the 59 players in camp. The third Boston manager in as many seasons, he succeeds one of the most beloved (Francona) and one the most-maligned (Bobby Valentine) skippers in team history. Farrell will never be as tyrannical and off-the-wall as Valentine, but GM Ben Cherington and the ownership trio are likely expecting more firm authority and less player protection than Francona employed. 

Clay and Jon Had Better Be On

Jon Lester has a lot to prove in 2013.

The fate of the 2013 Red Sox may very well lay in two sets of statistics:

Pitcher/Wins-Losses/WHIP/ERA
Jon Lester: 33-15, 1.19, 3.17
Clay Buchholz: 23-10, 1.233, 2.70

Lester: 9-14, 1.383, 4.82
Buchholz: 11-8, 1.326, 4.56

The first numbers cover the period from April 2010 through August 2011, when Lester and Buchholz were two of the best starting pitchers in the American League. "WHIP" -- walks plus hits per innings pitched -- has become a popular measuring stick for effectiveness.

Buchholz -- like Lester -- has a no-hitter for Boston.

Below those are what the duo has done since, as they and their team have come crashing to earth. Both were key factors in the 7-20 free-fall of September '11 that cost manager Terry Francona his job -- Buchholz through injury, Lester by ineffectiveness. It was hoped new man Bobby Valentine could spark a turnaround in the pair, but their travails continued on the dismal last-place club that finished 69-93  in Valentine's lone Boston summer of 2012.

Which Lester and Buchholz will we see this year atop the Red Sox rotation? Therein lies the key to new manager John Farrell's staff.

Ownership is hoping that the return of Farrell to Boston -- where, under his tutelage as pitching coach, the left-handed Lester (19-9) and right-handed Buchholz (17-7) flourished as All-Stars in 2010 -- will coincide with a return to form by these hurlers. Both are still in their prime, and if they can regain their co-ace status the Red Sox can take a huge step back toward respectability in the AL East. In Buchholz's case, this also means bouncing back from back problems that sidelined him during last year's second half.

John Farrell believes he'll get both aces on track.

"We feel they are some very tangible adjustments Jon Lester can incorporate to back on track. Clay Buchholz same way," Farrell told the crowd at a Hot Stove event on Cape Cod earlier this month. The new skipper isn't saying what those alterations are, but you can bet it's not a new chicken wing recipe.

Beyond these two, the rotation is even less predictable -- and potentially hazardous.

New No. 3 man Ryan Dempster pitched worse than Lester and Buchholz in the second half of 2012, compiling a 5.09 ERA and 1.453 WHIP for the Rangers after a terrific first half (2.25/1.038) with the Cubs. Dempster had several decent years in the National League with the Cubs and Marlins, but the offensive firepower he'll regularly face in the AL East will test his mettle.

Dempster's past doings against the division -- mostly in inter-league games -- are not encouraging. The 35-year-old has a lifetime ERA of 5.27 versus Toronto and 7.62 (with an 0-4 record) against the Yankees. If that trend continues the Green Monster at Fenway could have quite a few more dents by summer's end.

Can Doubront do it for a full season?

Felix Doubront was one of the few positive stories on the 2012 Red Sox, He went 11-10 in his first full season, and for much of the year was the team's most reliable starter. He slipped badly (1-5, 6.04 ERA) in August-September, but is still just 24. He had an excellent strikeout-to-innings pitched ratio of 9.3, and management hopes another year of experience will bring increased consistency and durability.

The hopes for Jon Lackey -- well, that's another story. His travails since signing a five-year, $82.5 million contract with the Red Sox after the 2009 season are well-documented, as his deceivingly decent 26-23 record in 2010-11 was accompanied by some of the worst ERA/WHIP numbers for a 150-inning starter -- 6.41/1.619 in '11 alone! -- in MLB history.

Lackey missed last year after having Tommy John surgery, but insists he now feels better than ever. Snce his pre-Red Sox resume included a 19-9 season and several big postseason wins for the Angels, one could be encouraged by such talk. Of course feeling good and pitching well don't always go hand-in-hand, and Lackey is not being counted on for much.

Rain or shine, Morales was solid for the Sox.

Middle relief was busy on last year's club, when no Boston starter had more than 11 wins. Franklin Morales, Craig Breslow, and Junichi Tazawa, all standouts in 2012, are slated to return. Morales, a left-hander, can also start.

The experiment to turn excellent set-up man Daniel Bard into a starter in '12 was a disaster, and the hope is that Bard can shake off memories of last summer's minor league demotion and regain some of his old form in the bullpen. Oft-injured Andrew Bailey was likewise a major disappointment as last year's closer, and this forced Valentine to turn to Alfredo Aceves at the end of games. Aceves did nothing to make fans forget departed stopper Jonathan Papelbon.

Now management hopes the recently-acquired Joel Hanrahan can do so. Hanrahan was an All-Star the last two summers with the Pirates, notching a combined 76 saves, 2.24 ERA, and 128 strikeouts over 128 innings. Bailey will be counted on to fill Bard's old eighth-inning spot, and if Hanrahan falters as closer perhaps Bailey can assume the role he once handled very effectively with Oakland.

Joel Hanrahan: The answer at the end?  

Of course for the closer to even matter, Boston has to be in position to win far more games that last year -- and that all starts with Lester and Buchholz.

Could Varitek catch on as coach under Farrell?

Farrell (left) and Varitek try to talk some sense into John Smoltz

The rumors are already circulating on Red Sox.com and elsewhere that Torey Lovullo will be  joining new Red Sox manager John Farrell’s staff as bench coach. Since Lovullo served as  Farrell’s first base coach in Toronto and is also familiar with the Red Sox organization – having  managed at Triple-A Pawtucket in 2010 – this seems a logical choice.

But there is another guy with whom Farrell enjoyed a strong relationship during his four years as 

Boston’s pitching coach, another guy who possess the high baseball IQ that Farrell is surely 

looking for in his lieutenants:

Jason Varitek.

Sure, Tek already has a new job as a special assistant to Red Sox general manager Ben 

Cherington, but does anybody know exactly what that means? There were two vice 

president/assistant GMs listed in this year's Boston media guide, so conceivably Varitek would 

be under them. Many fans and media types believe this George Constanza-like position is 

merely a place-holder until the man who caught nearly 1,500 games in Boston eventually gets 

back into the dugout as a coach or manager.

Even if Luvollo gets the bench coach job, it's easy to imagine Varitek fitting into another slot on 

Farrell's staff. He was known for his meticulous game-day preparation as a catcher, and  nobody this side of Ted Williams could better analyze a hitter's tendencies. Boston pitchers 

(and no doubt Farrell) loved how Varitek got them ready for a contest.

Tek puts a young Justin Masterson at ease.

Many believe Tek's retirement before last season is largely to blame for the total collapse of the 

Red Sox pitching staff in 2012. Boston's team ERA ballooned from 4.20 in 2011 to 4.72 last year, 12^th in the AL. During Varitek's last year catching at least 110 games, in 2008, the club  figure was a much more respectable 4.01, and it was 3.87 – first in the major leagues -- in '07.

Varitek could also hit a little himself, accumulating 306 doubles and 193 homers during his 15-

year career, so it's not inconceivable to see him as either a hitting or a pitching coach. If the 

latter seems a strange fit, don't forget about Dave Duncan – a former catcher who has spent 

some 25 years as a MLB pitching coach and has helped both the Cardinals and A's to World 

Series titles.

In the weeks leading up to Bobby Valentine's inevitable firing at the end of the 2012 campaign, 

there was much speculation about whether Varitek would be a good fit as the next Rex Sox 

manager. Cherington put this rumor to rest quickly, which was likely a good thing. Even if Tek 

did want the job, it would have been tough for him to come in with no experience and try to 

discipline guys he had played with just two years before.

Coaching is another story; you're an instructor rather than the big boss, and it's not vital that you 

be a hard-ass. Knowledge of the game and a desire to work hard are the two keys to success 

in the coaching ranks, and Varitek possesses both. He's also a link to the glory years of 2004 

and 2007, good karma which the team can surely need.

Varitek did take some heat for being captain of a club that collapsed epically in the 7-20, 

chicken-and-beer fiasco of last September, but the team was even more rudderless without 

him this year, going 69-93 for Boston's worst record since Varitek 1965 – seven years before Vartek was born.

Coming soon to a dugout near you?

Catchers have long been considered the smartest men on the field, and it's no coincidence that 

this year's four League Championship Series managers – Mike Matheny, Joe Girardi, Jim 

Leyland, and Bruce Bochy all spent their playing careers behind the plate. If he's interested, 

Varitek could likely match wits with any of them.

All he needs is a shot.

Bobby V. channels Grady Little – the Death Watch Continues

What -- me worry? Nahhhhh

This morning I went out to grab my morning paper – yes, I still get one – and noticed a pack of turkeys striding across my neighbor's lawn. I almost felt compelled to go over and give them directions to Fenway Park.

I broke my word last night to not watch another Red Sox game this year, and turned on NESN for the ninth inning from St. Petersburg. Big mistake. Andrew Bailey was on the mound, Bobby Valentine was in the dugout, but I felt like I was watching Grady Little and Pedro Martinez during Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS.

First some good news -- Jose Iglesias hit his first ML home run.

Matt Joyce, leading off – single to center. OK, no big deal, still a three-run lead.

Jeff Keppinger – line-drive single to center. Damn, that was pretty well hit. C'mon, Bailey, don't make this a nail-biter. The closer gets a coaching visit to the mound, presumably to tell him to cut the crap and throw some strikes so we can fly home.

Luke Scott – sharp grounder to first. James Loney fields it cleanly but struggles to get the ball out of his glove and is forced to make the play at first rather than second. Ugh, another well-hit ball, and now two runners are in scoring position. But at least there is one out.

Carlos Pena is up next, a .199 hitter but a certifiable Red Sox killer who seems to relish facing the hometown team that let him go before he found his 40-homer stroke. Bailey has the deer-in-the-headlights look of Calvin Schiraldi at Shea Stadium, and two relievers start warming up for Boston.

Line-drive single to center by Pena – Joyce scores, Keppinger to third. Enough is enough, Bobby V. Bailey has nothing and everybody knows it. Take him out now and let's try and end this road trip on a decent note.

Why can't the Red Sox get guys like this?

Shot to Bobby Valentine in the dugout – smirking but not moving. Hey, Bobby! Bobby!? Let's get out there already and yank Bailey, before you have another Daniel Bard on your hands.

Suddenly it occurs to me – this is just like Grady and Pedro at Yankee Stadium in '03. It was clear back then that Martinez had nothing by the eighth inning of Game 7, but Grady left him in to implode and set the stage for Aaron Boone in the 11th.

Sure, there were some differences. Little was playing for the World Series, and Valentine is playing for nothing – not even his job. He certainly knows that's long gone, whatever he says.

But haven't these guys been through enough? Don't they deserve to fly home feeling at least a little good about themselves – after taking 3 of 4 from the Rays and essentially ending their playoff hopes?

If this was Fenway during the last homestand, this would have been the moment fans who had opted for free “FIRE BOBBY V” stickers from the Boston Baseball hawkers on Brookline Ave. (they far outnumbered the "KEEP BOBBY V” versions inside the park) would have held them up or collectively crumpled them into balls to throw in the general vicinity of the Red Sox dugout.

The author offers his opinion (sorry, Nancy)

But in this case, all fans listening and watching across New England can do is yell at their radios and TVs while Bobby V. stays put and pinch-runner Rich Thompson takes Pena's spot at first. Next up, pinch-hitter Stephen Vogt. He's 0-for-11 on the season, 0-for-19 in his ML career, so maybe Bobby figures that even without his good stuff Bailey can get him.

Thompson steals second – putting the tying run in scoring position.

Great, this will likely rattle Bailey some more.

Stephen Vogt – walk on a full count, loading the bases. Look at the bright side; the Sox are still up 4-2, and at least he didn't get a hit. But Valentine needs to get someone else in there to keep this thing from going extra innings.

Vogt ponders what to do with that long stick.

Shot to Bobby V. – a little body movement, but he's still staying put. Valentine would later tell reporters he stuck with Bailey because it was the “first time he was in trouble. Got to give him a chance to get out of it, I think. Wanted to see what he would do.”

Well, we already saw what he could do in trouble two batters ago. And one batter ago. He was just making the trouble worse. Elliot Johnson runs for Vogt at first, trying to lessen the chance for a double-play and a scoring chance on a gap-hit. He represents the winning run with one out.

Desmond Jennings – who has a single and double in his last two at-bats – steps in.

Desmond Jennings – line-drive single to center on the first pitch. Keppinger and Thompson score, Johnson goes to third, and Jennings takes second when center-fielder Jacoby Ellsbury bobbles the ball for an error. Tie game.

Now, of course, Bobby V. comes out for Bailey and brings in Vicente Padilla to complete his Grady Redux moment. Google Padilla and the first three hits you get are “children” “kids” and “shot” – links that take you to stories about the multiple babies he's allegedly fathered with different women and the fact he once shot himself in the leg at a shooting range, lost 1.5 liters of blood, and initially lied about it to save his career.

Hmm...this explains everything.

Oh yeah, he also has a 4.60 ERA as he takes the mound and B.J. Upton comes up.

By now I figure this can only end one of two ways: either Upton will hit his 24h homer for a 7-4 victory, or he'll rope a liner to left, Carl Crawford will jump from the stands to take Scott Podsednick's place, and trap the ball as Johnson races home for a 5-4 win.

Belt-high fastball to Upton – homer over the center-field wall. Rays win, 7-4.

This is probably when the turkeys started assembling on my street. It's about a six-mile walk to Fenway, but if they hurry they should make it in plenty of time for tonight's 7:10 start against the red-hot Orioles.

Jon Lester gets the start for Boston and is 14-0 lifetime against the Birds, but this is 2012 and the Orioles appear to be a team of destiny playing for their first postseason appearance since the Clinton administration.

Bobby V and the Red Sox? They are just playing out the string.

Next stop -- Fenway.

One Red Sox fan’s incredible (and telling) Bobby Valentine encounter

Don't worry, Bobby, it's almost over.

            As the crazy saga of Bobby Valentine’s managerial meltdown in Boston continues, I thought I'd add another tale to the mix, courtesy of my friend and sometimes Fenway Park seat-mate Nancy.

            During the All-Star break, when Red Sox fans were in the midst of panicking over a surprisingly weak starting rotation, Nancy went for a jog on a blistering hot morning. About one mile from Fenway, along Huntington Avenue, she literally ran into a man in front of the swanky Colonnade Hotel.

            After a quick “sorry” she turned and started to jog away -- but then froze in her tracks. She was pretty sure the man in the khaki shorts and plaid shirt who she had hit was Bobby Valentine.

            Unlike many fans, Nancy had not yet soured on Bobby V. A season ticket holder, she had been very happy with the managerial change in Boston.

“I went to a game last September against the Rangers, when the Red Sox still had a big lead in the standings,” she recalls. “Lackey got bombed, they lost 11-4, and I remember having a bad feeling -- a sense they weren’t playing with purpose. They were just going through the motions – they were not Kevin Millar team; they were not Johnny Damon’s team.”

Nancy applauded the hiring of Bobby V.

            Nancy turned to her companions, her sisters-in-law, and said, “‘This is it. We’re done.’”

She was right. The epic 7-20 September collapse sealed manager Terry Francona’s fate, and Nancy applauded the hiring of Valentine – who had a reputation for being just the sort of tough-talking disciplinarian she felt was needed. Nancy, who once shouted down fans for singing “Sweet Caroline” during the eighth inning of a lopsided Red Sox deficit, liked tough guys.

            Now, even after a dismal first half-season, Nancy still hoped Bobby V. could turn things around. She ran back to him, smiled, and said, “'Are you my guy?'”

            He laughed and replied, “'Yeah, I guess I am!'”

            “'I love you!'” she shouted. “I know you can’t say anything, but we’ve got to get rid of Beckett, we’ve got to get rid of Lester, we've got to get rid of Lackey.”

            Valentine put his finger up to his lips, smiled, and said, “You know I can’t say anything.” He turned around to leave, but then walked back, crossed his fingers, and said, “But we can only hope.”

            Nancy can't quite remember what he said next, either “I had no idea this is what it was like here” or “I had no idea it would be like this here.”

            “I looked at him and just wanted to hug him,” she recalls. Instead, she said, “This is one tough town.”

Nancy wants to believe again.

            Valentine sort of shrugged, so Nancy added “You listen to all this stuff, but not everybody is against you. I have season tickets -- look at my tattoos! [She has a Red Sox “B” on her right ankle and a “dangling Sox” on her right shoulder.] Plenty of people want you to succeed.”

            She describes what happened next. “Knowing he was a Catholic school boy, which means you’re required to take Latin in school, I said to him 'Illegitimi Non Carborundum,' which means 'Don’t let the bastards get you down.' I didn’t learn that from the nuns, but if you study Latin, you learn things.

            “He laughed, so I assumed he knew it too. If he was educated by the Jesuits, he knew it.”

            Prior to this interview, Nancy had told her story to only a few close friends with whom she shared her seats.

            “Why tell it to everyone now? I feel like it’s over,” she said. “They never stood behind him – Ben Cherington number one, along with the owners. I’m never going to forgive all of these people for the way it turned out. Tito was what I knew and it seemed to be working. But I was not a Tito guy before the end of last season, because he was enabling them to not 'Cowboy Up' and be our team.”

Nancy saw a bit of Vaentine's playful -- and honest -- sides.

            Now, with another disastrous season nearing its end, it's time for another change. What does Nancy think?

            “Now I’m really just sad. I love the Red Sox; I really just do not like this team. I can’t watch them. I feel really bad for Bobby V. This is not what he signed up for. It’s not what any of us -- including the few players still trying -- signed up for. We’re the embarrassment of MLB.”

            Besides an attitude overhaul, here are her other recommendations:

            “We have GOT to get rid of all the different jerseys -- red, navy, etc. You have your home whites and your travel grays – period.”

            “Sweet Caroline – kill it.”

            “The Wave – do not allow it.”

            “And they better not charge major-league prices next year -- for tickets and beer – when they’re not fielding a major league team!”