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Wednesday, July 4, 2012

What is the woeful stat haunting this year's Red Sox?

Jon Lester pitched well, but it wasn't enough.

If the Red Sox expect to be in the running for a playoff spot in the second half of the season, there is one area they certainly need to improve in: their record in low-scoring games.

After last night’s heartbreaking 3-2 setback at Oakland, the Sox are just 4-29 in games in which they have scored three or fewer runs. This translates out to a .121 winning percentage, one of the worst such marks in the majors. It also points to a key deficiency on the year's team—top-notch starting pitching.

Unlike past years—when the Red Sox always had at least one clear ace who could match up against top opposing starters—the inconsistency on this year's Boston staff has made for many frustrating nights. Even when a pitcher has a strong start, like Jon Lester Tuesday, he seldom makes it through seven innings due to high pitch counts and a quick hook from Bobby Valentine.

Adding to the angst is that the Sox still have one of baseball's best offensive clubs overall, ranking third in the AL in average (.268), slugging (.444) and OPS (.772) through Monday. They have won their share of 9-4 and 15-5 games, but have struggled along at around .500 all year because of their low-scoring losses.

June offers a perfect microcosm of the problem. While the Red Sox had a decent 15-12 record overall for the month, they were 1-9 when scoring three or less runs—including 1-0 and 3-2 losses to the lowly Mariners last week. 

Strasburg and the Nationals had the Sox' number.

 During a 1-5 homestand against Baltimore and Washington earlier in June, Boston lost games of 2-1, 4-2 and 4-3. They were swept by the Nationals—who got excellent starting performances from their terrific trio of Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman. The Red Sox got decent pitching as well during that series, but it wasn't quite good enough.

Boston fans have been spoiled for most of the past 25 years. Even when the Red Sox didn't make the playoffs, they had a dominating pitcher who could win the 2-1 and 4-2 games. First it was Roger Clemens, then Pedro Martinez, and then Curt Schilling. To a slightly lesser degree, Josh Beckett and Jon Lester have fit this bill the last couple of seasons, but this has been an ace-less year.

Beckett (4-7), Lester (5-5) and the demoted Daniel Bard (5-6) have all been disappointments; and while Clay Buchholz (8-2) and Felix Doubront (8-4) both have winning records, their ERAs of 5.53 and 4.42 make it clear they have been the beneficiary of very strong run support.

Although closer Alfredo Aceves blew Tuesday's game, for the most part Boston's surprisingly efficient relief corps have kept them from falling even further into mediocrity. There is not much these guys can do, however, if they usually get the ball with the Sox already behind.

Pedro is gone, but the Sox need an ace.

After the end of this woeful West Coast string, Boston has four big games with the AL East-leading Yankees heading into the all-star break. Somebody on the starting staff needs to step up against New York and in the weeks that follow if the Red Sox want to be playing come October.


  1. I say ship Lester and Jacoby off to Seattle for Felix.

  2. Not a bad thought, anonymous. The Sox are real high on this kid Bradley in AA, who has near-Ellsbury speed, power, and a better arm. They certainly are not looking forward to finding the money for Ellsbury's next contract. But would Seattle be willing to eat some of Beckett's contract?